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Prediction for CME (2025-05-06T16:55:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2025-05-06T16:55Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/38722/-1
CME Note: Relatively fast, narrow eruption seen to the south-southeast in SOHO LASCO C2/C3 and GOES CCOR-1 and farther to the east-southeast or directly southeast in STEREO A COR2; the CME is associated with a filament eruption taking place on the Earth-facing disk near S20W01 seen as a lifting off of dark plasma in GOES SUVI 304 and SDO AIA 304 around 2025-05-06T16:30Z with bright post-eruptive arcades, especially in SDO AIA 193.
CME was not detected at Earth.
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2025-05-09T04:10Z (-6.09h, +4.26h)
Confidence that the CME will arrive: 25.0%
Prediction Method: CMEFM v.0.1
Prediction Method Note: 
Time of Launch: 2025/05/06 16:20Z
Plane of Sky 1: 00:00Z; 31.5Rsun; SSE Direction
Plane of Sky 2: 01:40Z; 31.5Rsun; NNW Direction
POS Difference: 1:40
POS Midpoint: 00:50Z
TOL/Midpoint Difference: 8:30

Numeric View/Impact Type: 4
POS Difference Resulted Value: ~7.04
Travel Time: ~7.04 * 8:30 = 59:50

Predicted L1 Arrival: 2025-05-09T04:10Z

Error Parameters:
 - POS Difference: 1 Hour
 - Travel Time Square Root: 50%

Notes:
Coronagraph Imagery Quality: 1/5
Method Update: https://www.desmos.com/calculator/nfk166mjdh


Forecast Creation Time: 2025/05/07 02:40Z
Lead Time: 49.42 hour(s)
Difference: -----
Prediction submitted by Garrett Imhoff (Other) on 2025-05-07T02:45Z
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